A value bet is a price that pays more than your estimate of the fair odds. You are not betting on who wins. You are betting that the price is too high.
Estimated edge measures by how much:
edge = bookmaker odds ÷ fair odds − 1
If the fair price for Home is 2.06 and a bookmaker offers 2.20, the estimated edge is 2.20 ÷ 2.06 − 1 = +6.8%. That is also the expected return per unit staked, if the fair price is right.
Watch out: the edge is only as good as the fair price behind it. A positive edge turns into profit over time only when the probability estimate is accurate and you can really get the price, at a stake the bookmaker accepts. A single bet tells you very little; judge over many bets.
On Pattern90. Match Analysis shows PRICE, FAIR and EDGE side by side. Choose Value for issued tips, or Near value for prices close to qualifying. A tip's recorded price and edge stay fixed once issued; STATUS shows whether the current price still offers value (TIP LIVE) or not (PRICE GONE). Public tips use prices between 1.70 and 4.00. Our goal is a positive return over the long run.
See today's value tips: Match Analysis → Value · Expected value calculator
Value is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+ · Bet responsibly.