Fair odds are an estimate of what a price would be without the bookmaker's margin. There are two common ways to get them: from the market itself, or from a model.
Market fair odds (no-vig). Turn each price into a probability (1 ÷ odds) and add them up. Take a match priced Home 2.00, Draw 3.60, Away 4.00:
| Outcome | Odds | Implied probability |
|---|---|---|
| Home | 2.00 | 50.0% |
| Draw | 3.60 | 27.8% |
| Away | 4.00 | 25.0% |
| Total | 102.8% |
The extra 2.8% is the overround: the margin built into the prices. Divide each probability by 1.028 and you get roughly 48.6% / 27.0% / 24.3%, or fair odds of about 2.06 / 3.70 / 4.11.
This is the market's estimate, not the true probability. It works best when you start from a sharp market, where prices are efficient. Spreading the margin evenly, as above, is one simple method among several.
Model fair odds. A model builds its own price from data and compares it with the market. It can be wrong, but it can also notice something the market has not priced yet.
Watch out: no-vig odds from a soft bookmaker are not a good fair price. If its prices are off, removing its margin keeps them off.
On Pattern90. In Match Analysis, Fair is our model price: it starts from top bookmakers such as Pinnacle and adds its own reading of price trends and team news. In Sharp Value, Fair is the sharp-market price with the margin removed. Both are a reference, not a promise.
See it live: Match Analysis · No-vig calculator · Expected value calculator
Value is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+ · Bet responsibly.