Expected value (+EV) calculator
Expected value (EV) is the average profit or loss a bet makes per unit staked over the long run: EV = probability × odds − 1. A positive number (+EV) means the price is higher than the true chance justifies.
Updated 19 October 2026 · Free, no sign-up. All calculations run in your browser. 18+ · Play responsibly.
How it works
- Enter the odds the bookmaker offers.
- Enter your estimate of the true probability — or fair odds, for example from a no-vig sharp price.
- Read the EV %: above zero, the bet has value.
The formula
EV % = p × odds − 1 · Expected profit = EV % × stake · Fair odds = 1 ÷ p
Worked example
The fair price of a team is 2.00 (a 50% chance) and a bookmaker offers 2.20. EV = 0.50 × 2.20 − 1 = +10%. On a €50 stake that is +€5 expected profit per bet — the result of a single bet still goes either way.
Where the true probability comes from
The most common source is a sharp bookmaker such as Pinnacle with its margin removed (see the no-vig calculator). Pattern90 builds its fair price this way for every match and adds team form on top — that is how our value tips are found.
FAQ
Can a +EV bet lose?
Yes. EV is about the average over many bets; any single bet can lose. That is why bettors judge themselves over hundreds of bets.
What EV % is good?
In football markets, an edge of a few percent is already strong. Very large edges are worth a second look at the team news first.