Pattern90BlogHow it worksPlans

Pattern90 › Blog

Corners: from expected corners to a fair price

Why expected corners are not a probability, how to price an Over line, and the settlement trap to avoid.

A corners bet is a bet on a line, such as Over 9.5. To judge its price you need two different things: how many corners you expect, and the chance of going over that specific line.

Expected corners are not a probability. A match with 10.2 expected corners does not make Over 9.5 a sure thing. Corners vary a lot from match to match, so the chance of 10 or more might be only a little above 50%. The fair price comes from that chance, not from the average.

An example (illustrative numbers). Our projection gives Over 9.5 a 55% chance, a fair price of 1.82. A bookmaker offers 1.95: an estimated edge of 1.95 ÷ 1.82 − 1 = +7.1%.

Watch out: compare only the same line and the same settlement rules. Over 9.5 at one bookmaker and Over 10 at another are different bets, and some bookmakers settle corners differently (for example extra time or a voided match). A price is only "the same or better" on the same line.

On Pattern90. Corners is a separate package, not included in Premium. Each prediction is chosen by our mathematical model when it finds value against the bookmaker's price. When a team has too few recent games for a sound projection, we skip the match rather than guess. Sharp Value also covers corners markets.

Each prediction shows the price at bet365 and at Pinnacle, with the better one in bold. If your own bookmaker offers the same price or higher on the same line, the prediction holds.

See the package: Plans → Corners

See it live on Pattern90 — free, no card.Open Pattern90Join free on Telegram

Value is an estimate, not a guarantee. 18+ · Bet responsibly.

More from the blog