Dropping odds calculator
Dropping odds are prices that have shortened since the market opened — a sign that money or news has moved the market. A drop from 2.40 to 2.10 means the market now sees the outcome as 14% more likely.
Updated 19 October 2026 · Free, no sign-up. All calculations run in your browser. 18+ · Play responsibly.
How it works
- Enter the opening price and the current price of the same selection.
- The calculator shows the change in odds and in implied probability.
- A drop (shorter odds) means the market rates the outcome as more likely.
The formula
Odds change = current ÷ opening − 1 · Probability = 1 ÷ odds · Change = 1/current − 1/opening
Worked example
The price falls from 2.40 to 2.10: odds change −12.5%. The implied probability moves from 41.67% to 47.62% — +5.95 points, or 14.3% more likely in relative terms.
Reading a drop
A drop at a sharp bookmaker such as Pinnacle, or on Betfair with money behind it, usually carries more information than a drop at a single soft bookmaker. Bookmakers that have not moved yet may still offer the old price. Pattern90 tracks these moves live on the Odds trend and Sharp Value tabs.
FAQ
Should I follow every dropping price?
No. A drop tells you where the market moved; value depends on whether the price you can still get is above the fair odds. Check it with the expected value calculator.
Why do odds drop?
Usually money from informed bettors, team news (injuries, line-ups) or a bookmaker correcting its price to the market.